In September, the government made good on a $100 million dollar promise—created during welfare reform—to reward five states with the largest decreases in out-of-wedlock births. That was good news for California, Michigan, Alabama, Massachusetts and the District of Columbia, whose proportion of out-of-wedlock births to total births declined an average of 3 percent from 1995 to 1997. But 39 states actually saw proportionately more births by single mothers during that time, keeping the national average unchanged and leaving millions at statistical risk for living in poverty.

Researchers are struggling to determine why some states experienced lowered birth rates among unwed mothers and to develop strategies for limiting births to teen moms, whose children face even greater risks. There are no easy answers. But when it comes to teens—whom welfare reform did not specifically target—there are some trends worth study.

Angela Jones, executive director of DC Action for Children in Washington, D.C., cautions, "It's important to remember that this award is really about out-of-wedlock births, though everyone is talking about teen birth rates."

We know that teen births account for about a third of all non-marital births, and that 78 percent of births to teens are out-of-wedlock. The wed and unwed teen birth rate has dropped by 9 percent since 1994. But reductions haven't been steady, and may even be slowing, according to the Alan Guttmacher Institute. The drop has been strongest in the African American community. White teens follow close behind. Latinas, who can be of any race, have the highest rates of teen pregnancy and births, and have not kept pace with the overall U.S. declines among teens.

Researchers aren't sure why the rate is dropping. According to Kristin Moore of Child Trends, "We know what it isn't. It's not abortion. [Those rates have not gone up.] And it's probably not the media, because the media—all forms, not just television—has not become more conservative or more informational."

Teen sexual activity is down across the country, says Moore, and condom use is up—presumably because of concerns over sexually transmitted diseases like HIV. The increase in the use of new contraceptives like Depo-Provera, often among women who have had a birth already, probably plays some role. And many believe that the economy has also had an impact.

Adds Moore, "There is some thought that child support enforcement is helping influence teenage men's behavior, that and disease concerns. There are a lot of complex factors that we don't know how they play into this, like incarceration—there are enormous numbers of men incarcerated [or involved in the juvenile justice system] who are unable to become fathers."

Some evidence suggests that education plays a role. A 1998 study published in the Journal of Research on Adolescencefound that white, black and Hispanic teenage girls who were engaged in school were less likely to become teen moms. Those teens who expected to go to college also had lower rates of pregnancy and birth.

But education is only partly responsible for the recent decreases in the four states and the District. Says Kristin Moore, "Educational engagement and school success are strong predictors of which teens become adolescent parents. But we're looking for something that's changed. There hasn't been a dramatic change in education levels that would lead to the significant change some of these states have experienced."

More research is under way to try to make sense of the numbers. "It's important that we learn more about the creative ideas and identify a rigorous way to track the effects of these new policies and programs to help find answers," says Kristin Moore.

"Kids who are born because of unintended pregnancy to unmarried couples do experience more challenges and disadvantages as they grow up," stresses Moore. "So the goal of the effort is a good one, and states need to pay attention to it."

Learn More
For more information on this important topic, and to learn what your state and others are doing, check out the following resources:

The Connect for Kids Teen Years feature has information on teen pregnancy and keeping teens on track.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has a state-by-state breakdown of out-of-wedlock numbers, and strategies for lowering teen and single parenthood rates.

The Alan Guttmacher Institute tracks issues related to teen pregnancy and birth rates.