A Personal Note from Jan

It has been almost eight years since I began writing the Connect for Kids Weekly. Through those years we have been through a lot together—and you have been generous with your information, your feedback and your support! The Connect for Kids Weekly was the first e-newsletter on children's issues, and it continues to be a comprehensive source of current, reliable information for all of you who are working to improve policies and programs for children, youth and families.

The time has come for me to give up my primary role in compiling and writing the Weekly so I can focus more time and energy on Connect for Kids' advocacy work—using policy communications to strengthen the voice of the child advocacy community in political and community decisions. This year I will be focusing on what it takes to be sure federal lawmakers do no harm to children and youth in their budget choices and on a major initiative to improve the odds for youth at risk in their schools and their communities.

The Connect for Kids Weekly will continue. Caitlin Johnson, who has been my right-hand person for the last few years in putting the Weekly together, will take over writing the Weekly each week. The clarity of her thinking and her superb writing skills will serve you and the Weekly well.

If you wish to send your information directly to Caitlin for consideration in future Weekly editions, you may email her at weekly@connectforkids.org. Feel free to continue to send me your info as well (jan@connectforkids.org) I will use it to stay in touch with you and your information, and will work closely with Caitlin as she makes selections for what to include each week in the Weekly.

It is with mixed emotions that I post my last Connect for Kids Weekly. As is traditional, here is the "Crystal Ball Weekly" for 2005 —my chance to be a pundit about the critical challenges facing us in the coming year—a year that promises the usual fights over funding for after-school programs and college aid as well as a year that will involve fights over Social Security and tax code changes that could lock in tight budgets affecting families and communities for a very long time.

The Crystal Ball 2005
We enter 2005 facing huge challenges. The economy has lost its bounce, many states and communities are still stuck in the doldrums, and ordinary families are finding it harder to get by and get ahead. Food pantries, shelters and community-based organizations report more working families with children are seeking emergency aid. More families are losing their employer-supported health coverage and taking pay cuts in a tough job market. The continuing war in Iraq and terrorist threats are also taking a toll on families, especially those directly affected by separations and loss.

President Bush has talked a lot about making the economy strong again, and he has said he will cut the deficit in half by 2009 by focusing on controlling non-defense domestic spending. This will be hard to do since such spending represents only one-sixth of the overall federal budget.

But it is clear his heart is in two big ideas he wants to pursue in his second term -- to overhaul Social Security and overhaul the tax code.

Changing Social Security as We Know It
Among the challenges we face, none is more fundamental than Social Security. While most people think of Social Security as solely for seniors, there are several reasons why child advocates say the struggle over how to reform this key component of the social safety net might be the biggest challenge we face this year.

Child advocates care about the impact of Social Security changes on the five million children who currently benefit from SSI and other Social Security programs. But they also care about the looming debate over fundamental changes in Social Security financing because President Bush's proposals to partially privatize Social Security come with a very large price tag. Economists estimate that the cost of changing to a system of private retirement accounts could be in trillions of dollars. Because the President has said he will not raise taxes to meet those costs, advocates are concerned that Social Security transformation will take money out of the federal budget for current needs and impose a bigger debt on generations not yet in the workforce. And for this high price, many economists say private accounts will not solve the Social Security problem anyway.

Federal Taxes: Spare the Feds and Squeeze the States
According to Congressional reporters, Republicans in Congress are divided over President Bush's desire to overhaul the tax code, but he is sure to find Congressional support for extending popular tax cuts.

While few politicians are brave enough to say they see tax cuts as a problem, many analysts argue that the proposed tax plans will end up shifting more of the burden of financing schools, child care, health care and other social services from those with a trust fund to families who live from paycheck to paycheck.

Further, making the tax cuts permanent could contribute to the ballooning of the national debt and create an increasing drag on the economy.

But perhaps of most concern to child advocates is a point made by Donald Boyd at the Rockefeller Institute. Boyd argues that President Bush's tax agenda could create major problems for state and local government budgets, the source of so much critical funding for children and families in health care, schools, higher education and community-based services.

A Bad Time to Get Sick
Rising health insurance costs are outstripping education in state budgets, rising costs for employee health benefits are dampening business growth, and the costs of health services, drugs and insurance are breaking the backs of working families. Government-financed programs like Medicaid and SCHIP have managed to maintain health insurance for many children in low and moderate-income families, but these programs are under pressure from tight state budgets and from politics.
With the costs of Medicaid increasing, some federal lawmakers are looking to shift more responsibility for this health program onto the states.

But the nation's governors—Republicans and Democrats—are opposing any plan to reduce the federal obligation to pay a share of Medicaid costs. Medicaid is now the largest item in many state budgets, squeezing funding for schools, public safety, and other programs.

House Republicans are considering capping mandatory federal spending on foster care and adoption programs in exchange for giving states more flexibility. Advocates oppose such a cap, because it would make it harder to fund critical services for families and children if caseloads increase.

These are the big fights facing us in 2005—big ideas that carry big price tags in changing Social Security and the tax code, and efforts to cut the deficit with savings from limiting discretionary domestic spending and capping mandatory spending.

Deja Vu All Over Again
And of course 2005 will see yet another round of reauthorization debates postponed from 2004—from Head Start to the Workforce Investment Act and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. Democrats favor more spending on college student aid, Head Start and child care subsidies for welfare-to-work families, for example, but these run counter to Republican pledges to cut the deficit by cutting discretionary spending. Youth advocates are especially concerned to maintain the dedicated funding and policy focus on young people in many of the job training and other workforce programs that serve both youth and adults.

Silver Lining Opportunities
While most child advocates see the coming year as a year to protect what we have, there are some opportunities ahead.
Recognizing that a skilled workforce is essential for a stronger economy and to staying competitive in today's global economy, both President Bush and National Governors' Association President Mark Warner (D-VA) have highlighted the need to focus on high school reform, to make sure that every student graduates with the skills needed for today's workforce and/or higher learning. Advocates are working with state and federal leaders on an agenda to make 2005 a year to address the crisis in today's high schools, where in many school districts the chances of graduating are only fifty-fifty.

The state budgets are seeing some breathing room but are still tight. This has meant cutbacks in public funding for health coverage, college aid, mental health services, and child care subsidies. One promising result of tight state budgets, however, is that state lawmakers are taking a harder look at burgeoning prison budgets. Some, like Maryland and Louisiana, are looking at an approach pioneered by Missouri that shows states can do juvenile justice cheaper by doing it right—holding juvenile offenders in small facilities where they get the services and counseling they need to prepare for a safe and successful re-entry to their communities.

Bush's interest in immigration reform will put an issue on the table that has the potential to improve the lives of millions of children who live in families with at least one immigrant parent.

Business leaders are lending increasing support to the concept of investing in early learning opportunities as a key to strengthening the future workforce. Their clout is helping sustain and increase public pre-kindergarten options in the states.

These are not small matters, but the big picture is that 2005 is a year that will test our mettle. The stakes are high for ordinary families who are finding it harder and harder to garner the resources they need to take good care of their children.

So keep up the good work, everyone, and stay in touch! Our strength is in our numbers!

Jan
Former Advocacy Director, Connect for Kids