Barton began by reflecting that the nation was lulled into thinking we were doing well in the 1990’s because the dropout rates did not seem to be increasing. The decline in graduation rates was masked by an increase in the number of students dropping out of high school and getting a GED instead.

But in fact high school graduation rates have declined from a high of 77.1% in 1969 to somewhere between 66.1% and 71% (depending on how they’re calculated) in 2000.

Coupled with the decline in graduation rates is another shift in the data that is of great concern. As retention rates climb in ninth grade, more ninth and tenth grade students are dropping out of high school instead of waiting until 11th or 12th grade. This may also be the result of reducing the age when students can take the GED from 20 to 16.

Barton reviewed his research into the factors associated with higher drop-out rates. He found that three factors -- socio-economic status of the parents, single parenthood and frequent changes in schools – explained 60 percent of the variation in graduation rates. In a state-by-state analysis of these factors and dropout rates, he found 24 states had dropout rates one would expect, given the data on the three factors. There were some states that did better than expected (these might provide clues for how to help beat the odds) and some that did worse.

We now know that graduation rates are too low and dropping. What do we know works?

Barton argued that the shortage of guidance counselors who could work closely with youth at risk is alarming, yet guidance counselors have been left out of every school reform movement. On average there is one high school guidance counselor for every 284 students, and most spend the bulk of their time helping prepare students for college applications, administering tests and monitoring cafeterias. Poor-resourced schools tend to have fewer counselors.

Among others, Barton cited the Talent Development High School, Communities in Schools, Maryland’s Tomorrow and Quantum Opportunities as examples of approaches within the public education system that have shown promise.

Looking at opportunities for students to get back on track after dropping out, Barton cited Job Corps, Youth Build, Center for Employment and Training, and Youth Corps as successful models.

Regarding the GED, Barton noted that rising GED rates among young populations is not good news. The GED helps, but should not be seen as an easy substitute to take the place of a high school diploma. A GED does little to increase earnings and employment opportunities.

The future of high school dropouts is bleak – even for those with a full-time job, the average earnings for workers without a high school diploma hover around the official poverty level for a family. For the economy, the loss of educated workers is also very troubling.

On behalf of the Campaign for Youth, Sally Prouty and Linda Harris then reviewed recommendations on improving policies to help young people stay connected or re-connect with schooling and work opportunities so they can stay on track for responsible adulthood.

While more students are dropping out of high school, work opportunities for teen employment are also at an all-time low. Yet federal investments in job training and other Department of Labor programs, for example, have declined significantly from $15 billion in 1979 (in 2003 dollars) to $2.6 billion in 2005.

The Campaign for Youth was formed to raise the level of awareness in this country regarding disconnected youth. In September, 2004, CFY hosted a Dialogue with Youth, engaging representatives of the Presidential Campaigns in conversation with youth. In response to an invitation to present recommendations to the administration, CFY engaged a broader coalition (now 250 organizations) and presented the Memo to the White House: Re-connecting Our Youth from a Coalition of Voices from the Field to the White House on January 27, 2005.

The Campaign for Youth and the organizations that have signed onto the Memo on Re-Connecting our Youth want to create a collective voice on behalf of disconnected youth with the purpose of influencing policy and stimulating action to support these youth as they realize their potential and transition into responsible, productive lives.

The Memo calls for better coordination at the highest levels in the Executive Branch to help reduce the problem of “silos” that make it difficult for communities to blend different sources of funding to weave stronger systems serving youth and families at the local level. Often these silos establish different eligibility requirements, reporting requirements and other administrative challenges that make local coordination more difficult.

In addition, Harris noted that the reauthorizations of the Higher Education Act, the Workforce Investment Act, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Perkins vocational education programs, the prisoner re-entry initiative and other legislative initiatives offer opportunities to reduce the “silos” and to set a higher priority on programs that serve older youth at risk