br> If you thought contentious politics stood in the way of improving public policies and programs for children and families last year, you’re sure to think the same is true—but more so—in 2004.

In a yearly exercise of peering into the future for kids and politics, the Connect for Kids Weekly makes several key predictions.

Prediction: It will be even more difficult in 2004 to get lawmakers to agree on what needs to be done to help families and children.
Because lawmakers (and voters) are so evenly and deeply divided over where we want to go, because it’s harder to find agreement in times of scarcity than in times of surplus, and because partisan calculations will dominate political negotiations in Washington in this critical election year, 2004 will be a tough year.

Prediction: Despite the economic recovery, families and communities will continue to feel the pinch.
The stock market will improve; the likelihood of underemployed parents or low-skilled youth finding a stable, good-paying job will not. Overall economic indicators will improve, but the well-being indicators for families and children are likely to lag behind, as job insecurity, job scarcity or low-paying jobs with few or no benefits put the squeeze on young families raising children.

Prediction: States will be pressed to continue cutbacks begun in 2003.
State budgets are improving but are still extremely tight. Look for continued cutbacks in health coverage for children and families, in funding support for public kindergartens and public universities, and in child care subsidies, out-of-school programs and job training. There is one silver lining: State budget concerns are leading some states to delay plans to build more prisons, providing child advocates with some grounds to argue for more prevention and intervention services for youth.

Prediction: Poor children are unlikely to gain much ground in their claim on public resources in 2004.
In the election year bidding wars, commitments to strengthen programs and policies for seniors will likely trump any increased commitment of public resources for juniors—improving schools, health care, child care, job training or social services for families.

Prediction: Expect more tax proposals.
The White House is sending signals that it will call for more tax cuts, in the form of tax-protected savings accounts for specific purposes—like tax-free college savings plans or larger tax shelters for private retirement accounts. Democrats are calling for rolling back enacted tax cuts to free up federal resources for other domestic and foreign needs.

Child advocates are likely to press for extending the 2003 child tax credit to minimum-wage families by making it refundable, and for expanding and simplifying the Earned Income Tax Credit that helps lift many low-wage families out of poverty.

Prediction: State differences, which can mean real differences in the lives of children, are likely to widen in 2004.
As more policy becomes local, public leaders and child advocates are working harder to gather timely state-specific information to monitor child welfare policies and practices, and their effect on children’s lives.

Other issues likely to bubble up from the states this year include bans on junk food in schools, on gun liability lawsuits and on smoking.

Prediction: Several key reports, and an important anniversary, will draw attention to a relatively invisible population—youth at risk.
The White House Report on Disadvantaged Youth, the January issue of the Future of Children on the foster care population, the Pew Commission on Foster Youth report and recommendations and other reports will bring attention to this group.

In addition, the 50th anniversary of the Supreme Court Brown v. Board of Education desegregation decision will focus greater attention on what’s happening to students of color and disadvantaged students in the nation’s schools.

Prediction: The controversies over implementing the No Child Left Behind education law are likely to intensify in 2004.
Teachers and students will be struggling to meet the rising accountability standards, and parents and schools will have a hard time finding the resources to realize the promise of the legislation—improved teacher quality, special tutoring or remedial help for students, transfer options for students seeking to leave schools in need of improvement and increased parent involvement in their children’s education.

The struggle for funding and how to define adequate yearly progress, especially for English learners and students with special needs, will be central in conflicts over how best to implement the NCLB provisions.

From children’s health care to funding for child care, from protecting the environment to making college more affordable, there is a lot at stake for children, youth and families in the 2004 November elections. Connect for Kids takes no position on the candidates, but does try to offer the kinds of resources voters need to be well informed on the issues.

Connect for Kids’ Kids and Politics section has background information on important issues, questions for candidates on issues affecting children and families and an ongoing, online Presidential Candidates’ Forum with Presidential candidates’ responses to our 10 key questions.

Read the full Crystal Ball Weekly.

Talk Back

If you’ve got comments or questions about this story, we’d like to hear them. Send your response to Jan Richter(jan@connectforkids.org).

Jan Richter is the advocacy director for Connect for Kids.